Real Collapse and Fake Collapse

Signs you're actually in a recession

If you’ve followed any financial media in the last two years (or even the last 15) you’ve heard endless chatter about the looming United States recession. According to the perpetual doomsayers we’re always either a few months away from collapse, or have already entered it but just don’t realize it yet.

You can cherry-pick any indicator you want, but my gut instinct looking around is that the American economy is humming along just fine. If anything this nation continues to be comically wealthy when compared across the globe.

Our boys working union gigs on the docks make more than most foreign medical doctors. I know a mailman who just bought a $70k new SUV. He’ll complain that oatmeal and pizza are now outrageously expensive, but he still buys them.

I get the sense that inflation is more mentally infuriating than life-crushing for most. The welfare state props up the low-end of society while the higher-end continues to begrudgingly buy the same crap they always did. These are all anecdotal feelings, they can change with the wind, but that’s how our “Wall Street Experts” typically operate anyways.

What Would A Real Crash Look Like?

The post-2008 economic boom has been going on so long now in America that I don’t even think we can comprehend what a real recession is. A situation where you actually have no choice but to curtail spending, where unemployment doubles in a matter of months and there are no jobs to be found. Not one of these fake technicalities, a recession by indicator or data point only. A real decline where many people are feeling the pain.

Would the country survive it? I don’t know a lot has changed socially since 2008. I’d imagine the nation pulls through to the other side but it could get pretty chaotic. The raison d'être for the modern USA is really making money. That’s why people come here, it is a semi-uniting belief, free enterprise remains strongly protected. A nation for doing business. If the money stops flowing you’re left with a disjointed group of ethnic factions and political interests.

If we were to ever sink to such state, there will be some telltale signs that flip and indicate you’re in a Real Recession and not a Technical Recession.

1. Food Delivery Slows Down

One of the most common expenses that would’ve been reserved only for the uberwealthy of yesteryear is food delivery apps. The notion that an Average Joe can dispatch a footman to fetch him food from any restaurant and bring it to his doorstep is really a modern marvel.

It’s an incredible sign of modern opulence that the middle-class uses these apps with any regularity. When the “big one” comes expect Joe Sixpack to pick up his own meals again instead of paying the delivery fee, tip, app fee, and local surcharge.

2. The Pet/Dog Economy Collapses

You know what I would not expect to be popular in a nation on the brink of economic doom? Artisanal Dog Food.

The society in boom is very caring to its furry friends. You can afford to get the best for your dog when the money isn’t tight. In the bad times you’d probably see pet ownership decline (another mouth to feed) and some of the lavish spending on products curtailed.

Instead of chimping about the yield curve, consider listening to Freshpet’s earnings call for your recession forecast.

3. People Start Cutting Back on Travel

I returned to the USA from abroad recently and was met with a nearly 3 hour line at JFK to get back into the country. Masses of US Citizens coming back from international holidays. If we’re already in a recession you certainly wouldn’t know it looking at the airports.

Passenger volumes have returned to record highs after the COVID slowdown. People are scurrying about, taking trips, spending money. Doomers may say it’s all credit fueled and keeping up with the Joneses, but I see no signs of slowdown.

In my opinion you can’t have a real recession until the vacations get scaled back. Pain must be felt, white collar employees must feel a twinge of fear when booking their overseas excursion. A looming sense of potential job loss should take over even for those in relatively safe fields.

4. The OnlyFans Gravy Train Derails

Paying for pornography was rather silly even before the internet. In the PornHub-era its even more puzzling. There is more free porn uploaded to the web in a single day than you could ever watch in a single lifetime. And yet, OnlyFans continues to suck up billions of dollars from willing buyers.

I think what’s going on with OnlyFans is more of a predatory hypnosis on the lonely and perverted men of society. They feel socially connected to these content creators and are willing to irrationally shell out money from their bank account for them.

Even though it may be the most frivolous expense and easy to cutback for the normal person, I think the OnlyFans money might be oddly sticky. They’re in trapped in a helpless trance, By the time the OnlyFans revenue breaks and the women creators start seeking more noble work (like prostitution), you’re already well into the recession.

Your typical OnlyFans customer will probably cling to their coom and lube until the collections agents are knocking on their door.